Given the recent wave of terrorist attacks and crises, some people are unsure whether to go ahead with trips they’ve planned. Others are wondering where on earth it is safe to travel nowadays.
Since a terrorist incident can happen anywhere at any time, it’s impossible to know the risk of one destination over another. But we can each come to grips with our own comfort level. Risk scientists will tell you that there are two factors that determine the risks that each of us are willing to take. One is risk perception—our estimation of how dangerous a place is, which could have little to do with reality. Two people may look at Paris and, because they have different sets of information, one sees risk there, the other doesn’t. The second factor is risk tolerance—our individual threshold for danger. Two people can agree on the facts and see Paris as having the same degree of risk, but one is willing to accept that risk and the other is not. First, you estimate the risk. Then you decide whether it’s tolerable.
It’s not easy to estimate the risk involved in a trip—and, as a native New Yorker, I may have a different risk tolerance than someone from West Bucolic—but, after criss-crossing the globe for the past two decades and traveling very safely in many countries for which there were warnings issued by the U.S. State Department, here’s how I personally do it:
7 Steps to Estimating Your Risk
- Read what travelers currently at your destination are reporting.
You’ll find such dispatches in TripAdvisor’s forums . In the Paris forum, for instance, in the thread “Cancel a trip to Paris this weekend?” one TripAdvisor member writes, “Except for the presence of more police and soldiers, we have noticed no real difference in our experience as tourists before and after the attacks… Paris is wonderful, don’t deny yourselves a wonderful experience.” Another TripAdvisor member writes, “I live in Paris, so I can tell you that we are living in a very normal way.”
- Consider the U.S. government’s advice.
The State Department recently issued a worldwide travel alert (which, in my opinion, is not a reason to panic ), and of course it also issues travel advisories and safety and security information for every country. Websites for U.S. embassies and consulates abroad (you’ll find links to them at USEmbassy.gov ) sometimes have news and safety information not available on the State Department’s site.
- Read what other countries’ governments are saying too.
It’s important to get a second opinion by checking the advice from other English-speaking governments. You’ll find Canada’s advisories here, the British government ’s here, and the Australian government ’s here.
- Note which locations are identified as risky, then look at a map.
Look at the distance between your destination and the place where there has been an incident or that is perceived as risky. Would you avoid New York City because a bomb went off at a marathon in Boston? Would you avoid Orlando because of shootings in Miami? Even if you deem Paris unsafe right now, that’s no reason to avoid Amsterdam or Barcelona or even Lyon or Nice. Of course, each of those cities has no-go zones, the same way any big city in the U.S. does.
- Peruse your destination’s local English-language newspaper online.
Written for expats, it will report crimes against Westerners. You’ll find a directory of newspapers around the world, many of them in English, at onlinenewspapers.com .
- Put your risks in the proper perspective.
Remember the 7 Keys to Traveling Without Fear Despite Terrorist Attacks . And, as you watch dramatic news stories repeated over and over on television, remember that the news media does not show images of the vast majority of people at a destination living their everyday normal lives—because that’s not news.
- Remember that security is always stepped up after a terrorist incident.
In every place I’ve visited shortly after a terrorist attack (including Beirut, Cairo, Istanbul, Mumbai, and New York City), there have been so many guards with machine guns and metal detectors set up—at tourist sights, in hotel lobbies, etc.—that another incident at that time would have been highly unlikely. Remember that terrorists want to create surprise and drama by finding a new, unexpected place to attack. The place where the last attack happened is an unlikely place to get hit next.
9 Ways to Minimize Your Risk
If you’re waiting for an all-clear signal to travel, you’ll probably be waiting for a very long time. If you decide to go ahead with a trip, here are a few smart things you can do to be prepared for any situation.
- Enroll in STEP.
The State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program makes it easier for the U.S. embassy to send you safety alerts, contact you in an emergency, and help family and friends contact you as well.
- Avoid big crowds.
Remember that a terrorist wants to inflict as much damage as possible—which means seeking out public areas with a ton of people. Steer clear of demonstrations, rallies, sports games, and train stations during rush hour.
- Follow useful twitter feeds.
Twitter gives you breaking news and can provide potentially life-saving information in an emergency. Follow the U.S. embassy feed in the country you’re visiting and the U.S. State Department’s feed, @travelgov . The @RedCross feed and Google’s Crisis Response Team, @GoogleCR , are also worth following, as are the local airport’s feed, which may post updates about airport delays and shutdowns, and the feeds of local hotels, which usually have an emergency action plan and may be offering help or a landline.
- Choose a hotel where you can monitor the news.
Make sure your hotel has reliable high-speed Internet access, so you can easily check local English-language news Web sites. If you’re overseas, make sure your in-room television has CNN, BBC, and Al-Jazeera.
- Program your phone with emergency numbers.
Remember that 911 does not work outside the U.S. and Canada. Find out the local emergency numbers for the country you’re in .
- Rent a satellite phone or satellite messaging device.
In an emergency you probably can’t rely on your cell phone, as cellular networks often get cut off. If you don’t or can’t bring a satellite phone, rent a local mobile phone.
- Use hotel-arranged taxis
Use a vetted driver, or have your hotel call you a cab, rather than taking the bus or public transportation. If you do use public transit, don’t use it at rush hour.
- Purchase membership in an emergency-assistance program.
You can get assistance in a crisis via MedjetAssist’s new Horizon Membership , for instance. Should a terrorist attack, a political threat, violent crime, or similar affect your trip, you get access to a 24/7 Crisis Response Center, a veteran security expert to advise you, and response services to come to the rescue if necessary. You get that on top of MedjetAssist’s regular travel protection: Should you end up hospitalized during a trip, they’ll arrange bedside-to-bedside air medical transport back home to a hospital you trust—something that most forms of travel insurance don’t do.
- Focus on those risks that are most likely to affect your trip.
Wherever you are—including at home—you are far more likely to be a victim of ordinary street crime than terrorism. So avoid flashy jewelry and other signs of wealth or influence (such as a jacket with a corporate American logo). Carry a mini-flashlight so you don’t get caught in the dark. And don’t make yourself a target by photographing government buildings, military installations, airports, train stations, policemen, guards, or anyone who does not want his/her photo taken.
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