Given the recent wave of terrorist attacks and crises, some people are unsure whether to go ahead with trips they’ve planned. Others are wondering where on earth it is safe to travel nowadays.
Since a terrorist incident can happen anywhere at any time, it’s impossible to know the risk of one destination over another. But we can each come to grips with our own comfort level. Risk scientists will tell you that there are two factors that determine the risks that each of us are willing to take. One is risk perception—our estimation of how dangerous a place is, which could have little to do with reality. Two people may look at Istanbul and, because they have different sets of information, one sees risk there, the other doesn’t. The second factor is risk tolerance—our individual threshold for danger. Two people can agree on the facts and see the same degree of risk in Istanbul, but one person is willing to accept that risk and the other is not. First, you estimate the risk. Then you decide whether it’s tolerable.
It’s not easy to estimate the risk involved in a trip—and, as a native New Yorker, I may have a different risk tolerance than someone from West Bucolic—but, after criss-crossing the globe for the past two decades and traveling very safely in many countries for which there were warnings issued by the U.S. State Department, here’s how I personally do it:
7 Steps to Estimating Your Risk
- Consider what travelers currently at your destination are reporting.
You can find such dispatches in TripAdvisor’s forums . For advice about a city or country, go to that destination’s forum and search recent posts about safety, or ask a question yourself. As an example, a few days after the November 2015 attacks in Paris, a traveler asked, “ Cancel a trip to Paris this weekend? ” A TripAdvisor member visiting Paris at the time answered, “Except for the presence of more police and soldiers, we have noticed no real difference in our experience as tourists before and after the attacks….Paris is wonderful, don’t deny yourselves a wonderful experience.” A few days after the March 2016 attacks in Brussels, in response to “ Getting into Gare du Midi ,” a TripAdvisor member in Brussels wrote, “People are sitting outside at café terraces as usual, enjoying the sunshine…and the traffic seems to be moving along as normal….We are not in ‘lockdown.’”
- Read your government’s advice for travel to your destination.
- Get a second or third opinion.
Sometimes government advisories may be politically influenced. Consider checking what a couple of other nations’ governments have to say. For example, English-speaking Americans might want to check the travel advice issued by Canada and the United Kingdom .
- Note which locations are identified as risky, then look at a map.
Look at the distance between your travel destination and the place where there has been an incident or that is perceived as risky. Would you avoid England because of attacks in Paris? Would you avoid Beverly Hills because of shootings in San Bernardino? Remember that every big city, including those that are among the world’s most popular travel destinations, have areas that are dangerous and where tourists (and most locals) should not go.
- Peruse your destination’s local newspaper online.
You’ll find a directory of newspapers around the world, many of them in English or languages other than the spoken tongue it was published in, at onlinenewspapers.com .
- Put your risks in the proper perspective.
Remember the 7 Keys to Traveling Without Fear Despite Terrorist Attacks . And, as you watch dramatic news stories repeated over and over on television, remember that the news media does not show images of the vast majority of people at a destination living their everyday normal lives—because that’s not news.
- Remember that security is always stepped up after a terrorist incident.
In every place I’ve visited shortly after a terrorist attack (including Beirut, Cairo, Istanbul, Mumbai, and New York City), there have been so many guards with machine guns and metal detectors set up—at tourist sights, in hotel lobbies, etc.—that another incident in that place at that time would have been unlikely. Remember that terrorists want to create surprise and drama by finding a new, unexpected place to attack.
9 Ways to Minimize Your Risk
If you’re waiting for an all-clear signal to travel, you’ll probably be waiting for a very long time. If you decide to go ahead with a trip, here are a few smart things you can do to be prepared for any situation.
- Find out how your government can help you in an emergency abroad.
Your government’s embassy or consulate in the destination you’re visiting may be able to offer assistance. Check whether you can register your travel plans in advance, to help your government contact you or your family in the event of an emergency. If you’re a U.S. citizen, for example, you can register your trip with your embassy and consulates abroad via the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program , which makes it easier for the embassy to send you safety alerts, contact you in an emergency, and help family and friends contact you.
- Avoid big crowds.
Remember that a terrorist wants to inflict as much damage as possible—which means seeking out public areas with a ton of people. As best you can, avoid demonstrations, rallies, sports games, and train stations during rush hour. Here’s how you can avoid the biggest crowds at tourist sites .
- Follow useful Twitter feeds.
Twitter gives you breaking news and can provide potentially life-saving information in an emergency. Follow your government’s travel-advice twitter feed. For example, if you’re a U.S. citizen, follow @travelgov ; if you’re Canadian, follow @TravelGoC ; if you’re British, follow @FCOtravel ; if you’re Australian, follow @Smarttraveller . Also follow the twitter feed of your country’s embassy in the destination you’re visiting. The @RedCross feed and Google’s Crisis Response Team, @GoogleCR , are worth following too, as are the local airport’s feed, which may post updates about airport delays and shutdowns, and the feeds of local hotels, which usually have an emergency action plan and may be offering help or a landline.
- Choose a hotel where you can monitor the news.
Make sure your hotel has reliable high-speed Internet access, so you can easily check local news Web sites. Make sure your in-room television has a range of news channels from around the world, such as CNN, BBC, and Al-Jazeera.
- Program your phone with emergency numbers.
Find out the local emergency numbers for the country you’re in .
- Rent a satellite phone or satellite messaging device.
In an emergency you probably can’t rely on your cell phone, as cellular networks often get cut off.
- Use hotel-arranged taxis.
Use a vetted driver, or have your hotel call you a cab, rather than hailing a taxi off the street or taking the bus or public transportation. If you do use public transit, try to avoid rush hour.
- Consider membership in an emergency-assistance program.
Residents of the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, for instance, can get assistance in a crisis via MedjetAssist ’s new Horizon membership. Should a terrorist attack, a political threat, violent crime, or similar affect your trip, you get access to a 24/7 Crisis Response Center, a veteran security expert to advise you, and response services to come to the rescue if necessary. You get that on top of MedjetAssist’s regular travel protection: Should you end up hospitalized during a trip, they’ll arrange bedside-to-bedside air medical transport back home to a hospital you trust.
- Focus on those risks that are most likely to affect your trip.
Wherever you travel, you are far more likely to be a victim of ordinary street crime than terrorism. So avoid flashy jewelry and other signs of wealth or influence. Carry a mini-flashlight so you don’t get caught in the dark. And don’t make yourself a target by photographing government buildings, military installations, airports, train stations, policemen, guards, or anyone who does not want his/her photo taken.
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